Breakable-Simplification
0x2213ea2051bd7706ff0e294d6ed05c0802d2492c
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
77
Open notional
$2.9K
Total PnL
$70.54
Realised
$229.76
Win rate
100%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 77- NO
Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
191 shares @ 88.1¢·now 87.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$166.22
$-2.09
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in July 2026?
200 shares @ 46.2¢·now 69.3¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$138.27
$46.10
- NO
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?
200 shares @ 68.5¢·now 68.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$135.99
$-1.05
- NO
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?
149 shares @ 81.3¢·now 82.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$122.92
$1.83
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 74.9¢·now 60.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$121.30
$-28.40
- NO
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
112 shares @ 94.7¢·now 97.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$108.60
$2.76
- NO
Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?
100 shares @ 92.0¢·now 91.8¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$91.80
$-0.20
- NO
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?
200 shares @ 47.4¢·now 45.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$90.70
$-4.20
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
100 shares @ 87.8¢·now 89.3¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$89.36
$1.55
- NO
Will an independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
100 shares @ 87.0¢·now 88.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$88.10
$1.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Productivity" during July Press Conference?$0.59Jul 29, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$3.61Jul 29, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?$45.85Jul 29, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$39.00Jul 29, 18:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$89.40Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$19.00Jul 29, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$81.20Jul 29, 17:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$81.59Jul 29, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$77.19Jul 29, 17:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$36.94Jul 29, 17:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$16.51Jul 29, 17:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$25.14Jul 29, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$22.91Jul 29, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$15.80Jul 29, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$3.23Jul 29, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$25.68Jul 29, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$3.20Jul 29, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.36Jul 29, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?$68.00Jul 29, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$51.82Jul 29, 17:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $32.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 16:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 18:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.