Darling-Graduate
0x2251f0b651a57f86194dc687e063b1f956b825a0
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$2.4K
Total PnL
$-168.34
Realised
$-23.94
Win rate
56%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
719 shares @ 76.2¢·now 75.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$539.36
$-8.86
- YES
Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
536 shares @ 85.5¢·now 85.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$455.72
$-2.69
- NO
Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
300 shares @ 98.3¢·now 96.4¢·exp Apr 23, 2027$289.05
$-5.85
- NO
Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
249 shares @ 93.8¢·now 93.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$232.91
$-0.64
- NO
Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
200 shares @ 97.3¢·now 96.7¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$193.40
$-1.20
- NO
Will Olivier Faure announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
200 shares @ 91.0¢·now 90.3¢·exp Apr 23, 2027$180.50
$-1.50
- NO
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
118 shares @ 80.9¢·now 83.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$98.85
$3.02
- NO
Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
200 shares @ 73.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Apr 23, 2027$89.00
$-57.00
- YES
Will Raphaël Glucksmann announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
100 shares @ 88.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Apr 23, 2027$84.50
$-3.50
- NO
Will François Bayrou be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
87 shares @ 94.5¢·now 94.3¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$81.94
$-0.13
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$35.64Jul 5, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$33.56Jul 5, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$24.30Jul 5, 09:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$25.92Jul 5, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?$294.90Jul 5, 01:19 UTC
- REWARD$16.00Jul 5, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$43.29Jul 4, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mathilde Panot be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$28.96Jul 4, 22:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$5.18Jul 4, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$21.60Jul 4, 12:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$4.80Jul 4, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$10.69Jul 4, 11:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ségolène Royal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$12.65Jul 4, 06:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?$10.53Jul 4, 06:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jérôme Guedj be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$28.52Jul 4, 06:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mathilde Panot be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$68.83Jul 4, 06:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jérôme Guedj be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$62.86Jul 4, 06:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Philippe de Villiers be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$94.09Jul 4, 06:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$90.68Jul 4, 06:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$108.53Jul 4, 06:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
56% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $41.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 08:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 11:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.