Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
Probability
51¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$11.25
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 8692h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 87.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 8692.3h
- 19:44SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 8692h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 51¢.
Biggest hourly move: +24.0pp at 11:00 (to 51¢).
Show all 6 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · +22.5pp → 51¢
- 17:00 · +23.0pp → 51¢
- 15:00 · +22.5pp → 51¢
- 14:00 · +22.0pp → 50¢
- 12:00 · +22.0pp → 50¢
- 11:00 · +24.0pp → 51¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 23, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (87.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.