Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.1K

Realised

$-465.29

Win rate

25 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

FLUXO W7M
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs
973 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026
$0.00
$-9.73
SAN DIEGO PADRES
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals
89 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026
$0.00
$-8.90
MIAMI MARLINS
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
74 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026
$0.00
$-8.88
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET
68 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-12.16
NO
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
67 shares @ 78.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026
$0.00
$-52.85
YES
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
62 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026
$0.00
$-4.96
NO
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?
58 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-14.50
NO
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Iran" this week?
57 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026
$0.00
$-14.25
NO
Will Bernie Sanders say "Iran" in Michigan?
57 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026
$0.00
$-14.25
NO
Will JD Vance say "Tariff" in Des Moines?
56 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026
$0.00
$-14.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$2.49Jul 23, 02:20 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$4.69Jul 22, 15:19 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$4.72Jul 22, 06:19 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$10.00Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.82Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET$2.19Jul 21, 23:20 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$2.34Jul 21, 23:12 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$5.00Jul 21, 23:11 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$1.68Jul 21, 23:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$1.73Jul 21, 23:05 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET$1.98Jul 21, 23:00 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET$2.09Jul 21, 23:00 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET$2.09Jul 21, 23:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET$1.93Jul 21, 23:00 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET$2.34Jul 21, 22:57 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET$2.49Jul 21, 22:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET$1.52Jul 21, 22:56 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET$1.68Jul 21, 22:55 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET$1.47Jul 21, 22:55 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - July 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$5.00Jul 21, 22:46 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

56/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 25 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence83 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry51 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk24 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 41
Avg trade size: $2.22
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 21, 22:15 UTC
Last active: Jul 23, 02:20 UTC
Win rate sample: 25 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 06:58:50 UTC·src:Polymarket Data