Direct-Alley
0x22c29d09e1b81978aff4e2e7a6dc6455e43085a2
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.6K
Realised
$2.0K
Win rate
58%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
252372 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.8K
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
30000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-60.00
- YES
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
25335 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-75.98
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
10017 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-17.99
- YES
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
6718 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-109.99
- NO
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
6667 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-99.99
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on January 13?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
3132 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-60.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?$218.02Mar 7, 03:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?$180.00Mar 4, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?$11.00Mar 4, 22:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$10.00Mar 4, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$5.00Mar 4, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$10.00Mar 4, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$10.00Mar 4, 19:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$100.00Mar 4, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$100.00Mar 4, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$15.00Mar 4, 17:54 UTC
- TRADESELLJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?$6.07Mar 4, 14:45 UTC
- TRADESELL100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?$7.04Mar 4, 14:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$1.67Feb 20, 09:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$1.00Feb 19, 22:28 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$9.65Feb 17, 02:53 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$0.00Feb 17, 02:53 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$0.00Feb 17, 02:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$20.00Feb 17, 02:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$5.00Feb 17, 02:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$14.00Feb 17, 02:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $76.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 14, 12:11 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 7, 03:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.