100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $11.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.