Ugly-Bankbook
0x22ff0d89d0911171c90c2902d8789acf2d6b5254
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$94.2K
Total PnL
$-779.71
Realised
$764.67
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
67840 shares @ 86.2¢·now 96.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$65.4K
$6.9K
- NO
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
26257 shares @ 82.4¢·now 93.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.5K
$2.9K
- NO
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
4578 shares @ 85.4¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.3K
$372.90
- NO
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?
8212 shares @ 87.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-7.2K
- NO
Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027?
4822 shares @ 25.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.2K
- NO
Will Joe Biden be named in newly released Epstein files?
1673 shares @ 83.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.4K
- NO
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files?
1031 shares @ 81.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-838.37
- NO
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files?
550 shares @ 86.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-477.02
- NO
Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files?
543 shares @ 87.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-472.54
- NO
Will Trump win FIFA Peace Prize?
209 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 5, 2025$0.00
$-12.52
Recent activity
- YIELD$5.81Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$5.82Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$5.82Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$5.80Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$5.81Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$5.81Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$5.80Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$5.78Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$5.79Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$5.80Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$5.80Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$5.81Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$5.81Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$5.82Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$5.81Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$5.81Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$5.82Jul 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$5.81Jul 12, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$5.80Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$5.79Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.