Scarce-Incentive
0x232928a26d81355572fc9fd446b6e255c2b8eb12
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-253.96
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
71303 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-99.97
- YES
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
50000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- NO
Will Tim Walz drop out by January 6?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 29-January 4?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 December 29-January 4?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will XRP reach $2.60 December 29-January 4?
1725 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Solana reach $190 December 29-January 4?
1499 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
1429 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Xavi Hernandez be the next Chelsea manager?
262 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELL1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?$1.07Jan 6, 21:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GTA 6 cost $100+?$5.30Jan 6, 21:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moldova win Eurovision 2026?$5.08Jan 6, 21:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?$7.78Jan 6, 21:23 UTC
- TRADESELLBill Clinton divorce by June 30?$6.67Jan 6, 21:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jeff Bezos be richest person on March 31?$2.98Jan 6, 21:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?$9.99Jan 6, 21:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk's net worth be at least $670b on January 31?$9.71Jan 6, 21:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?$10.52Jan 6, 21:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?$6.66Jan 6, 21:22 UTC
- TRADESELLAvatar 4 greenlit by March 31?$13.39Jan 6, 21:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?$17.93Jan 6, 21:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?$34.07Jan 6, 21:22 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?$37.71Jan 6, 21:22 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$42.72Jan 6, 21:21 UTC
- TRADESELLGTA 6 launch postponed again?$38.38Jan 6, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tim Walz drop out by January 6?$10.00Jan 5, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?$40.00Jan 5, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?$10.00Jan 5, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$50.00Jan 5, 14:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $31.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 4, 05:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 6, 21:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".