Carefree-Heirloom
0x236cc6d6ce8c4ecdc958872fb07b09e5c1a4cfd0
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$74.67
Total PnL
$-12.01
Realised
$72.77
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
100 shares @ 54.0¢·now 43.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$43.05
$-10.95
- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
20 shares @ 63.0¢·now 80.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$16.03
$3.43
- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2000 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$9.00
$-6.00
- NO
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
20 shares @ 42.5¢·now 19.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.82
$-4.68
- YES
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?
5 shares @ 46.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.77
$0.47
- YES
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?
3881 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 3, 2025$0.00
$-31.86
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Vít Rakušan be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?
791 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 3, 2025$0.00
$-0.79
- YES
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on IPO day?
100 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-2.70
- YES
Will Trump meet with Chuck Schumer by October 10?
40 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 10, 2025$0.00
$-5.60
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.