Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$5.00
Liquidity
$2.4M
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 2
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
- 3
UMA status: disputed
An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: disputed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 13:45SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Apr 12, 2026
- UMA status
- disputed
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: disputed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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