0x238fe1b4a91d47bda4fb418dd4a6a09494983015
0x238fe1b4a91d47bda4fb418dd4a6a09494983015
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$22.84
Total PnL
$-231.56
Realised
$164.42
Win rate
71%
144 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 11?
118 shares @ 3.2¢·now 3.3¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$3.89
$0.12
- NO
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
111 shares @ 1.7¢·now 1.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.11
$0.22
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?
82 shares @ 2.3¢·now 2.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$2.08
$0.20
- YES
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?
36 shares @ 5.2¢·now 5.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.94
$0.07
- YES
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
380 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.90
$0.00
- YES
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?
59 shares @ 3.2¢·now 3.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.89
$0.00
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?
38 shares @ 4.9¢·now 4.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.77
$-0.10
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 6-12?
27 shares @ 7.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$1.75
$-0.14
- YES
Will Sian Astley win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
40 shares @ 4.3¢·now 4.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$1.62
$-0.09
- YES
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?
54 shares @ 3.5¢·now 2.9¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$1.54
$-0.35
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 6-12?$1.89Jul 9, 19:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?$0.94Jul 9, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$1.42Jul 9, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$0.01Jul 9, 18:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$0.70Jul 9, 18:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 11?$1.11Jul 9, 18:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?$2.60Jul 9, 18:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$2.97Jul 9, 18:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$0.46Jul 9, 18:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 11?$0.19Jul 9, 18:25 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 15?$2.01Jul 9, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?$1.87Jul 9, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 11?$0.04Jul 9, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 11?$1.85Jul 9, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 11?$0.10Jul 9, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 11?$1.65Jul 9, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 11?$0.13Jul 9, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?$1.89Jul 9, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.26Jul 9, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.25Jul 9, 18:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 144 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
144 closed markets, 71% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 16:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 19:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 144 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.