GeopoliticsExpires Jul 31, 2026
Creator

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?

Probability

18¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+2.0pp

24h Vol

$5.0K

Liquidity

$32.1K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jul 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
18¢
Jun 24, 2026, 05:00 UTCJun 27, 2026, 06:43 UTC
updated 06:44:01 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-27T06-44Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 2pp over 24h

    Now 18¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $5.0k traded against $32.1k of visible liquidity (0.16× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring
Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jul 31, 23:59 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 833.2h

    LOW

Price movement

+2.0pp over the last 24h, now 18¢.

Biggest hourly move: -25.0pp at 17:00 (to 18¢).

Show 8 hourly moves
  • 06:43 · +5.0pp → 18¢
  • 05:00 · +5.0pp → 18¢
  • 00:00 · +5.5pp → 18¢
  • 22:00 · -15.5pp → 18¢
  • 21:00 · -18.0pp → 18¢
  • 19:00 · -16.0pp → 18¢
  • 18:00 · -15.5pp → 17¢
  • 17:00 · -25.0pp → 18¢
updated 06:44:01 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 06:44:01 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Geopolitics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

iaea

Reason

IAEA / nuclear-inspection markets are Geopolitics.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?"?

As of Sat, 27 Jun 2026 06:44:01 GMT, YES is priced at 18% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +2.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 31, 2026 (2026-07-31T23:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$5.0K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $51.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $32.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket