Rigid-Fraction
0x239f6227b744c034138f68b57f372d9da2868b82
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$399.47
Total PnL
$-146.32
Realised
$-4.80
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
100 shares @ 64.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$66.50
$2.50
- YES
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?
50 shares @ 84.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$41.50
$-0.50
- NO
Will Brittany Allen – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a drama series?
50 shares @ 87.9¢·now 81.0¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$40.52
$-3.42
- NO
Will Euphoria be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?
50 shares @ 83.9¢·now 73.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$36.88
$-5.08
- NO
Will "Hacks" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?
100 shares @ 57.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$35.50
$-21.50
- YES
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?
50 shares @ 54.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.25
$-0.75
- NO
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?
50 shares @ 54.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.75
$-1.25
- NO
Will “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series?
50 shares @ 61.0¢·now 47.0¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$23.50
$-7.00
- NO
Will “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?
50 shares @ 48.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$18.75
$-5.25
- YES
Will Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?
50 shares @ 64.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$18.00
$-14.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by August 31?$14.60Aug 18, 10:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 18?$10.58Aug 18, 03:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 19?$14.81Aug 18, 03:54 UTC
- REWARD$7.43Aug 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 18?$0.31Aug 17, 23:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 18?$12.60Aug 17, 21:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 18?$6.80Aug 17, 21:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 18?$1.77Aug 17, 21:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 18?$4.72Aug 17, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 18?$13.60Aug 17, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 19?$16.20Aug 17, 17:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Drake be the second most streamed artist for 2026?$8.95Aug 17, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Drake be the second most streamed artist for 2026?$9.20Aug 17, 16:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by August 31, 2026?$0.65Aug 17, 06:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?$2.78Aug 17, 06:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 17?$5.01Aug 17, 06:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by at least 40%?$8.60Aug 17, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?$4.00Aug 17, 00:28 UTC
- REWARD$8.71Aug 17, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?$17.40Aug 16, 22:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $9.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 16, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 10:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.