Rigid-Fraction
0x239f6227b744c034138f68b57f372d9da2868b82
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
23
Open notional
$367.48
Total PnL
$-115.43
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
50 shares @ 83.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$39.25
$-2.25
- NO
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
50 shares @ 85.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$39.00
$-3.50
- NO
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
50 shares @ 83.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$36.75
$-4.75
- YES
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
50 shares @ 87.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$36.25
$-7.25
- NO
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 20–30%?
50 shares @ 80.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$31.25
$-8.75
- NO
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
50 shares @ 74.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jan 16, 2027$30.75
$-6.25
- NO
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
50 shares @ 40.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jan 16, 2027$18.25
$-1.75
- NO
Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg?
50 shares @ 50.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2026$18.00
$-7.00
- NO
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
50 shares @ 43.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$16.75
$-4.75
- NO
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?
20 shares @ 75.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$14.90
$-0.10
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?$48.25Jun 24, 00:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$41.50Jun 24, 00:23 UTC
- REWARD$0.15Jun 24, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06?$9.04Jun 24, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?$1.50Jun 24, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?$1.50Jun 24, 00:12 UTC
- REWARD$103.48Jun 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?$15.00Jun 23, 23:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06?$3.00Jun 23, 23:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Healey be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?$44.50Jun 23, 23:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06?$15.26Jun 23, 23:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06?$18.20Jun 23, 23:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?$5.40Jun 23, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?$5.20Jun 23, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Healey be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?$44.50Jun 23, 23:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?$20.50Jun 23, 23:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?$4.50Jun 23, 22:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?$0.18Jun 23, 22:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?$7.59Jun 23, 22:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?$12.50Jun 23, 22:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $18.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 17:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 00:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.