Grouchy-Dolman
0x242642fcc37e6f079219a545867921dd682ad3e5
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$12.3K
Total PnL
$-2.7K
Realised
$-483.39
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
5945 shares @ 93.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$5.9K
$329.93
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
3000 shares @ 73.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.8K
$645.00
- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
2100 shares @ 84.0¢·now 95.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.0K
$238.35
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
861 shares @ 33.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$860.99
$568.82
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
1000 shares @ 75.3¢·now 56.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$564.90
$-188.10
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4494 shares @ 10.1¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$173.01
$-282.88
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
34 shares @ 84.8¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.65
$3.66
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?
4223 shares @ 18.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-788.99
- YES
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 65 and 66 million views on day 4?
4200 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-2.1K
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
1003 shares @ 66.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-665.97
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.24Jul 30, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.