Likable-Laborer
0x24321d12a64cb847650e306edfe817cfd1243ef5
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$869.10
Total PnL
$-814.94
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1839 shares @ 19.6¢·now 29.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$542.42
$182.42
- YES
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31?
1472 shares @ 8.5¢·now 12.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$176.67
$51.67
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
1765 shares @ 5.7¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$150.01
$50.01
- YES
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?
17053 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-249.98
- NO
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
1576 shares @ 31.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-500.00
- YES
Portugal leading at halftime?
545 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-120.00
- YES
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?
435 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score
306 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-110.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
19 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-9.07
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$692.81Jul 21, 16:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$529.56Jul 19, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$206.50Jul 16, 04:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31?$125.00Jul 16, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$185.33Jul 8, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$100.00Jul 8, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYPortugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score$112.11Jul 6, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYPortugal leading at halftime?$122.81Jul 6, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?$50.00Jun 25, 22:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?$10.00Jun 21, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?$102.31Jun 21, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?$500.00Jun 11, 17:32 UTC
- TRADESELLIran closes its airspace by June 8?$352.02Jun 8, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by June 8?$200.00Jun 7, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?$200.00May 27, 16:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?$2.5KMay 26, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$360.00May 25, 16:07 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$0.00May 24, 17:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$30.35May 24, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$25.02May 24, 15:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $733.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 27, 15:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 16:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.