Idle-Crib
0x24612f92d7ea9164a9a2fe63fa9a9ea17ff4ae29
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
25
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-73.76
Realised
$0.09
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- DOWN
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 6?
4351 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-5.90
- YES
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?
1429 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 14?
543 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 14?
223 shares @ 10.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-23.95
- YES
Will UBS or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Tesla deliver 500000 or more vehicles in Q1 2026
169 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
121 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?$1.00Feb 9, 21:13 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strike on Cuba by March 31?$1.11Jan 17, 21:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?$0.00Jan 14, 17:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?$0.00Jan 14, 17:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?$0.00Jan 14, 17:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?$0.00Jan 14, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 14?$23.95Jan 14, 16:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 14?$1.09Jan 14, 15:53 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$1.16Jan 14, 15:49 UTC
- TRADESELLHuman moon landing in 2026?$1.81Jan 14, 15:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?$3.12Jan 14, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?$1.00Jan 14, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026?$2.00Jan 14, 10:21 UTC
- TRADESELLGreece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?$1.33Jan 14, 09:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?$0.54Jan 14, 09:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 14?$0.43Jan 14, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 14?$1.00Jan 14, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 14?$1.00Jan 14, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 14?$1.00Jan 14, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $4,600 in January?$1.00Jan 14, 07:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $2.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 11, 21:11 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 9, 21:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.