Portly-Past
0x24c517156c557cd1f3cef97036ace147ac05e032
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
116
Open notional
$37.88
Total PnL
$-394.32
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 116- YES
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
141 shares @ 17.7¢·now 16.4¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$23.13
$-1.87
- YES
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
119 shares @ 4.2¢·now 3.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$4.21
$-0.79
- YES
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
417 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.7¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$2.92
$-0.08
- YES
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?
75 shares @ 4.0¢·now 3.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.59
$-0.41
- YES
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
60 shares @ 8.3¢·now 3.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.96
$-3.04
- YES
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
25 shares @ 8.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.13
$-0.88
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
169 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.7¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$1.10
$-1.90
- YES
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?
568 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.85
$-3.15
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
14500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-29.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
3019 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-65.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-07-19?$2.06Jul 19, 19:54 UTC
- REDEEMArgentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score$4.44Jul 12, 04:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Norway vs. England end in a draw?$7.62Jul 12, 00:08 UTC
- REDEEMNorway vs. England: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$4.08Jul 12, 00:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance$2.08Jul 11, 23:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score$2.05Jul 11, 23:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?$2.07Jul 11, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$2.05Jul 11, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?$1.04Jul 11, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France vs. Spain end in a draw?$2.07Jul 11, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?$1.04Jul 10, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway vs. England end in a draw?$2.07Jul 10, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?$2.06Jul 10, 20:23 UTC
- REDEEMMexico vs. England: Team to Advance$9.43Jul 6, 03:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYMexico vs. England: Team to Advance$5.07Jul 5, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?$2.04Jul 5, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance$1.03Jul 3, 21:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.06Jul 3, 09:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$18.23Jul 3, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance$2.05Jul 2, 16:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $9.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 00:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 19:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.