Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 5459h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $21.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.