MacroExpires Dec 9, 2026
Creator

Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

Probability

21¢

1h

-0.9pp

24h

-4.9pp

24h Vol

$31.1K

Liquidity

$49.2K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Momentum / follow-through

60% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Confidence below paper gate

Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.

Signals

  • Momentum / follow-throughclear

    60% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

  • Confidence below paper gatewatch

    Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.

Costs / sizing

Research score
Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
48
Capacity
Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
$4k
Liquidity
Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
$49k
Explanation packet2026-06-16.1
DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority
What can be learned
Source-to-runtime coverage283/283 runtime-backed0 unmapped

all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1microstructure_quality_kernelexecution_markout_kernelpromotion_gate+3
live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 9, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Federal Reserve
Link
federalreserve.gov
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+8.0pp 7d
1007550250
21¢
Jul 22, 2026, 09:00 UTCJul 29, 2026, 08:21 UTC
updated 08:22:09 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-07-29T08-22Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 5pp over 24h

    Now 21¢; -0.9pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved down 4.9pp in 24h with 0.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring
Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: Federal Reserve

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 9, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 3183.6h

    LOW
  • 08:22Signal

    Momentum down

    Probability moved down 4.9pp in 24h with 0.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

-4.9pp over the last 24h, now 21¢.

Biggest hourly move: +11.7pp at Jul 24, 21:00 UTC (to 26¢).

Show top 8 of 43 hourly moves
  • Jul 26, 21:00 UTC · -8.2pp → 16¢
  • Jul 26, 20:00 UTC · -7.8pp → 17¢
  • Jul 26, 15:00 UTC · -8.1pp → 17¢
  • Jul 26, 12:00 UTC · -7.6pp → 18¢
  • Jul 25, 01:00 UTC · +10.0pp → 25¢
  • Jul 25, 00:00 UTC · +10.5pp → 26¢
  • Jul 24, 23:00 UTC · +10.7pp → 26¢
  • Jul 24, 21:00 UTC · +11.7pp → 26¢
updated 08:22:09 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 08:22:09 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventFed rate hike by...?
Category · Macro

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Macro

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

fed

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "fed" — matched the Macro rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?"?

As of Wed, 29 Jul 2026 08:22:09 GMT, YES is priced at 21% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -4.9pp in the last 24 hours, -0.9pp in the last hour, and +8.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 9, 2026 (2026-12-09T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$31.1K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $728.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $49.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.2¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket