Rapid-Precipitation
0x24e8b15bb3e4328cf67b7037b1e71b36a4244546
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$747.52
Total PnL
$-13.1K
Realised
$204.72
Win rate
87%
46 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 15?
428 shares @ 55.5¢·now 51.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$218.28
$-19.26
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 14?
218 shares @ 79.0¢·now 97.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$211.80
$39.39
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 15?
214 shares @ 43.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$84.53
$-7.49
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 15?
135 shares @ 67.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$83.03
$-7.42
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 15?
172 shares @ 42.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$69.83
$-2.59
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 14?
98 shares @ 42.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$40.68
$-0.49
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 15?
67 shares @ 43.0¢·now 40.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$26.74
$-2.01
- YES
Will London have between 40-50mm of precipitation in July?
165 shares @ 44.0¢·now 7.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$12.54
$-60.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 14?
194 shares @ 25.9¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.10
$-50.31
- YES
Will "Michael" be the April film with the highest domestic gross on May 31?
822 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.82
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 14?$2.16Jul 14, 03:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on July 15?$3.60Jul 14, 03:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 15?$9.00Jul 14, 03:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 15?$0.38Jul 14, 03:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 15?$1.02Jul 14, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on July 15?$2.32Jul 14, 03:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 15?$1.40Jul 14, 03:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 15?$10.20Jul 14, 03:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 15?$115.56Jul 14, 03:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 15?$1.10Jul 14, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 15?$2.40Jul 14, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 15?$121.98Jul 14, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on July 14?$7.66Jul 14, 03:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 15?$11.09Jul 14, 03:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 15?$0.52Jul 14, 03:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 14?$39.00Jul 14, 03:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on July 15?$3.56Jul 14, 03:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 15?$90.45Jul 14, 03:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on July 14?$3.40Jul 14, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 15?$1.23Jul 14, 03:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
79/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
87% win rate over 46 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
46 closed markets, 87% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $14.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 02:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 03:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 46 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.