EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires May 31, 2026

Will "Michael" be the April film with the highest domestic gross on May 31?

Probability

1¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.7pp

24h Vol

$622.73

Liquidity

$4.2K

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.2pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 19:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:53
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 846h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $4.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 846.1h

    LOW
  • 17:53Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 846h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.7pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventHighest Domestically Grossing April Film on May 31?

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the title of the film released in April 2026 with the highest domestic gross between opening and May 30, 2026 according to "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
to the title of the film released in April 2026 with the highest domestic gross between opening and May 30, 2026 accordiAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
the-numbers.com
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket