Jovial-Change
0x2514cef461a19e84d62afd21adc451d3742e8782
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
118
Open notional
$2.94
Total PnL
$-573.91
Realised
$19.24
Win rate
80%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 118- KNICKS
Knicks vs. Spurs
3 shares @ 34.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$2.94
$1.94
- NO
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
336 shares @ 89.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-300.00
- NO
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31?
248 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-19.00
- YES
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League?
222 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
215 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-16.42
- YES
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Jeff Yan say "Prediction market" during TBPN appearance on October 22?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 22, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
91 shares @ 7.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-6.54
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYKnicks vs. Spurs$1.02Jun 5, 00:58 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$12.09Jun 1, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$5.16Jun 1, 12:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpurs vs. Thunder$1.01May 30, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$20.22May 29, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$15.16May 29, 21:30 UTC
- REDEEMKnicks vs. Cavaliers$1.82May 26, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYKnicks vs. Cavaliers$1.01May 25, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$14.39May 25, 21:33 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$10.00May 25, 21:31 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$13.53May 25, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYKnicks vs. Cavaliers$1.02May 24, 00:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$10.20May 22, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYCavaliers vs. Knicks$2.04May 21, 19:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpurs vs. Thunder$1.02May 20, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$2.03May 20, 02:59 UTC
- TRADESELLCavaliers vs. Knicks$3.98May 20, 02:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYCavaliers vs. Knicks$1.00May 20, 02:53 UTC
- TRADESELLCavaliers vs. Knicks$4.87May 20, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYCavaliers vs. Knicks$0.79May 20, 02:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $3.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 11, 11:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 5, 00:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".