Fake-Polyester
0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
70
Open notional
$39.9K
Total PnL
$-16.9K
Realised
$-6.4K
Win rate
60%
43 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 70- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
6905 shares @ 68.0¢·now 65.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$4.5K
$-207.15
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
13737 shares @ 25.6¢·now 21.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.0K
$-558.41
- YES
Weed rescheduled by December 31?
11004 shares @ 34.9¢·now 23.6¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.6K
$-1.2K
- NO
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
2980 shares @ 48.4¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.4K
$986.31
- YES
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027
6726 shares @ 15.8¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.3K
$1.2K
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
5676 shares @ 48.8¢·now 35.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.0K
$-755.89
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
2974 shares @ 55.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.7K
$14.87
- YES
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
11151 shares @ 38.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$-2.6K
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
1654 shares @ 66.9¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$340.80
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
2518 shares @ 42.1¢·now 55.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.4K
$324.24
Recent activity
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$2.89Jul 28, 22:14 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$3.69Jul 28, 22:14 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$1.36Jul 28, 22:14 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$1.31Jul 28, 21:46 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$1.50Jul 28, 21:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?$326.04Jul 28, 21:29 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$981.50Jul 28, 20:53 UTC
- TRADESELLNo listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027$1.17Jul 28, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?$32.00Jul 28, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$1.0KJul 28, 18:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$3.3KJul 28, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$300.00Jul 28, 17:55 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$8.58Jul 28, 17:50 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$12.06Jul 28, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$187.17Jul 28, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 10–15 seconds by July 31, 2026?$1.2KJul 28, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 6–10 seconds by July 31, 2026?$511.32Jul 28, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$14.30Jul 28, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?$4.52Jul 28, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$421.79Jul 28, 15:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 43 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
43 closed markets, 60% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
$5.5K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $188.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 23:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 22:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 43 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.