Pleasing-Chaos
0x253f8383e94275cd7db8e6785e100a2ec299e642
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
7
Open notional
$128.69
Total PnL
$-1.85
Realised
$-8.60
Win rate
50%
6 closed
Largest open positions
- SOUTHERN SUPER STARS
Legends Cricket League: Mumbai Spartans vs Southern Super Stars
89 shares @ 71.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$44.50
$-18.69
- NO
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?
43 shares @ 95.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$43.00
$1.98
- NO
Over $400M raised on Coinbase in 2026?
82 shares @ 19.2¢·now 47.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$38.58
$22.84
- NO
Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 58.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.97
$0.81
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
1 shares @ 65.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.58
$-0.07
- YES
Will Glenn Youngkin announce a presidential run before 2027?
1 shares @ 8.0¢·now 5.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.05
$-0.03
- YES
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026?
1 shares @ 9.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.09
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill MrBeast hit 460 Million subscribers by December 31?$0.00Jun 17, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?$0.00Jun 17, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?$0.00Jun 17, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Park Chan-wook be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 17, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?$0.00Jun 17, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in November?$0.00Jun 17, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Zootopia 2" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$0.00Jun 17, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?$1.00Jun 17, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMCDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?$0.00Jun 17, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 17, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Noah rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?$0.00Jun 17, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 17, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast hit 105.5 billion views by December 31? $0.00Jun 17, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Domantas Sabonis lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?$0.00Jun 17, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$0.00Jun 17, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$0.00Jun 17, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - November 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$0.00Jun 17, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - November 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$0.00Jun 17, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - November 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$0.00Jun 17, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?$0.00Jun 17, 15:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
11 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $91.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 31, 11:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 15:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.