Punctual-Elevator
0x254f2b95128466b03813f100ff3baa03cdbb7cc0
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$284.65
Total PnL
$-78.42
Realised
$-21.62
Win rate
10%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
120 shares @ 64.0¢·now 65.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$78.00
$1.20
- NO
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
50 shares @ 68.0¢·now 68.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2027$34.00
$0.00
- YES
Will Republican House incumbents not win in three or fewer nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
171 shares @ 23.5¢·now 16.9¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$28.89
$-11.28
- YES
Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?
60 shares @ 43.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.30
$-1.50
- NO
Will “Beef” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series?
40 shares @ 60.5¢·now 59.0¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$23.60
$-0.60
- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
50 shares @ 15.0¢·now 27.9¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$13.93
$6.42
- YES
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
40 shares @ 38.2¢·now 34.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$13.70
$-1.47
- NO
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?
40 shares @ 59.3¢·now 33.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$13.40
$-10.33
- NO
Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?
36 shares @ 39.5¢·now 35.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$12.56
$-1.60
- YES
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
24 shares @ 48.0¢·now 48.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.53
$0.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$76.80Jul 12, 17:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$3.60Jul 12, 16:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?$36.00Jul 12, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?$5.60Jul 12, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill “Beef” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series?$12.00Jul 12, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill “Beef” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series?$12.20Jul 12, 15:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$3.08Jul 12, 15:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$2.52Jul 12, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$10.92Jul 12, 15:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?$19.00Jul 12, 15:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$76.79Jul 12, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no next Culture Secretary of the UK in 2026?$2.40Jul 12, 14:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 27 be between 86 and 89?$7.60Jul 12, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 27 be between 86 and 89?$1.71Jul 12, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$5.35Jul 12, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$26.59Jul 12, 14:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$29.25Jul 12, 14:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$16.80Jul 12, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$5.96Jul 12, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$3.64Jul 12, 14:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
10% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $13.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 05:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 17:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.