Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
Probability
11¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6687.1h
- 08:54SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6687h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 10¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 29, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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