Emotional-Kinase
0x25db76e0be974135ee4a732d11dffb7fb4b824ad
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
90
Open notional
$26.20
Total PnL
$-526.95
Realised
$-13.93
Win rate
38%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 90- NO
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
10 shares @ 77.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.73
$1.30
- YES
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
24 shares @ 27.5¢·now 26.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$6.23
$-0.35
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
7 shares @ 73.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.00
$-0.07
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
5 shares @ 51.3¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.65
$0.24
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
2 shares @ 81.8¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.72
$0.30
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
6 shares @ 56.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.07
$-2.56
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 60.9¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.66
$-5.54
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
12 shares @ 50.6¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.13
$-6.19
- NO
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
214 shares @ 73.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-156.78
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 8?
172 shares @ 24.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-42.72
Recent activity
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$6.82Jul 23, 19:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$7.55Jul 23, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$4.57Jul 23, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$2.11Jul 23, 19:30 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$10.14Jul 23, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$10.15Jul 23, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$7.55Jul 23, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$12.70Jul 23, 18:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$11.97Jul 23, 18:39 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$10.78Jul 23, 18:19 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$0.40Jul 23, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$11.39Jul 23, 18:14 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$5.09Jul 23, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$5.01Jul 23, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$8.92Jul 23, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$8.79Jul 23, 16:34 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$10.59Jul 23, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$10.60Jul 23, 16:22 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$8.81Jul 23, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$8.69Jul 23, 15:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $7.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 09:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 19:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.