Insistent-Gingerbread
0x2670de40a7d880b6257fc4285601f535dfb81fc2
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$12.68
Total PnL
$-136.65
Realised
$-0.33
Win rate
6%
35 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- YES
Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?
11 shares @ 90.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$10.28
$0.28
- YES
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
2 shares @ 86.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.99
$-0.01
- YES
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
23 shares @ 44.3¢·now 1.8¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.42
$-9.58
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - August 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
53 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
31 shares @ 81.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET
24 shares @ 46.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET
16 shares @ 19.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
15 shares @ 74.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
14 shares @ 49.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
12 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?$2.01Aug 18, 09:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$1.07Aug 18, 09:29 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs$2.65Aug 17, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs$1.01Aug 17, 12:38 UTC
- TRADESELLLoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs$1.16Aug 17, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs$1.02Aug 17, 12:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs$5.07Aug 17, 10:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?$10.05Aug 17, 08:14 UTC
- REDEEMSion: Dimitris Sakellaridis vs Gian Luca Tanner$14.08Aug 16, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester City win on 2026-08-16?$1.04Aug 16, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City end in a draw?$1.04Aug 16, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYSion: Dimitris Sakellaridis vs Gian Luca Tanner$10.14Aug 16, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$1.05Jul 25, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$1.03Jul 25, 18:05 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET$2.04Jul 25, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET$1.04Jul 25, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$1.04Jul 25, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$1.60Jul 25, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$1.04Jul 25, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$5.09Jul 25, 17:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 35 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
35 closed markets, 6% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $3.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 17:08 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 09:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 35 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.