0x26b26ac3b434b12ee2d5a3310b2f62ce38164486
0x26b26ac3b434b12ee2d5a3310b2f62ce38164486
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$52.6K
Total PnL
$-11.4K
Realised
$-511.32
Win rate
46%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
17100 shares @ 93.9¢·now 95.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.4K
$296.77
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
14400 shares @ 72.9¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.0K
$2.5K
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
6403 shares @ 88.5¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.9K
$188.93
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
5150 shares @ 82.7¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.4K
$143.26
- NO
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?
3000 shares @ 96.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.0K
$115.50
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
2900 shares @ 87.6¢·now 95.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.8K
$213.03
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
2334 shares @ 64.3¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.2K
$658.56
- NO
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?
2027 shares @ 78.9¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.9K
$315.37
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 77.7¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$895.00
$117.86
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2899 shares @ 34.5¢·now 19.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$560.99
$-439.01
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
46% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.