Vague-Tank
0x26ec8a80b71ad806beb78eb58b7d77a740b1682c
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-197.28
Realised
$-14.03
Win rate
4%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3?
156 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3?
112 shares @ 15.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-17.30
- YES
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18?
90 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.88
- YES
Will MrBeast hit 520 million subscribers by July 31?
85 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.91
- REKONIX
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs
51 shares @ 68.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
49 shares @ 14.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- NATUS VINCERE
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3
39 shares @ 68.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-27.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12PM ET
39 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- BETBOOM TEAM
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs
35 shares @ 49.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-17.21
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET
31 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill London have less than 30mm of precipitation in August?$19.32Aug 12, 13:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?$1.27Aug 6, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill London have less than 30mm of precipitation in August?$1.88Aug 2, 23:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?$76.80Jul 25, 14:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast hit 512 million subscribers by July 31?$4.10Jul 20, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast hit 512 million subscribers by July 31?$20.43Jul 9, 15:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?$24.67Jul 9, 11:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill London have less than 30mm of precipitation in June?$0.00Jul 2, 02:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast hit 520 million subscribers by July 31?$2.56Jun 30, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast hit 520 million subscribers by July 31?$1.42Jun 29, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs$35.34Jun 23, 04:17 UTC
- TRADESELLDota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs$5.58Jun 22, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs$5.09Jun 22, 15:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?$0.00Jun 22, 11:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?$0.00Jun 22, 11:39 UTC
- TRADESELLDota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs$71.52Jun 22, 05:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs$55.54Jun 22, 04:54 UTC
- TRADESELLDota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs$45.90Jun 21, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs$45.07Jun 21, 14:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$72.52Jun 21, 07:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $34.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 16:54 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 13:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.