Fickle-Halt-Window
0x279c5de35108afc30b99f09e595555b428e92b82
Wallet digest
Activity score
99/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
87
Open notional
$13.3K
Total PnL
$1.5K
Realised
$2.5K
Win rate
59%
73 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 87- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
846 shares @ 98.3¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$844.95
$12.79
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
822 shares @ 92.8¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$816.86
$54.25
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
648 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$645.44
$3.50
- YES
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
4115 shares @ 25.8¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$637.86
$-422.57
- NO
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?
1484 shares @ 43.6¢·now 40.5¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$601.22
$-46.55
- YES
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027?
608 shares @ 90.2¢·now 90.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$550.78
$2.97
- YES
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027?
723 shares @ 62.6¢·now 73.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$527.76
$75.32
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
519 shares @ 92.2¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$479.63
$1.61
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?
612 shares @ 74.0¢·now 76.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$465.05
$11.94
- NO
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by December 31, 2026?
702 shares @ 57.5¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$452.50
$49.29
Recent activity
- TRADESELLGPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?$9.67Jun 26, 12:56 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$3.15Jun 26, 12:55 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by June 30?$1.03Jun 26, 12:50 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by June 30?$1.20Jun 26, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?$2.86Jun 26, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?$2.86Jun 26, 12:47 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.02Jun 26, 12:42 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.27Jun 26, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 15?$35.27Jun 26, 12:37 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$4.78Jun 26, 12:37 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.07Jun 26, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026?$16.96Jun 26, 12:29 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$0.58Jun 26, 12:29 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$0.59Jun 26, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$19.02Jun 26, 12:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?$1.03Jun 26, 12:25 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$8.75Jun 26, 12:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$0.76Jun 26, 12:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?$1.24Jun 26, 12:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.02Jun 26, 12:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
77/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
59% win rate over 73 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
73 closed markets, 59% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $12.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 26, 11:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 12:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 73 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.