Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?
Probability
47¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+9.0pp
24h Vol
$279.99
Liquidity
$594.45
Probability (last 7 days)
+6.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6024.5h
- 04:30SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6024h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 04:30PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 47¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 46¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 46¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 45¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 45¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 45¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 46¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 44¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 40¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 39¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 38¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 38¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 37¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 37¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).