Quirky-Toast
0x27a757eaad293e0ad8ef5d9eabf68cfbf8349525
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
47
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-122.16
Realised
$5.72
Win rate
36%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 47- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 7?
300 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 8?
267 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 7?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 10?
200 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 9?
182 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 9?
159 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 10?
116 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.81
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 10?
67 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 9?
64 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.86
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 10?
61 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?$9.60Jun 9, 23:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30?$1.12May 31, 13:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 30?$1.39May 31, 09:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 30?$1.39May 31, 02:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 29?$0.66May 30, 18:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30?$1.30May 30, 16:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 30?$1.25May 30, 16:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 29?$5.37May 30, 14:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 29?$3.97May 30, 09:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 29?$1.43May 30, 08:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 29?$5.26May 30, 07:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 29?$1.46May 29, 23:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 28?$0.23May 29, 21:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 28?$0.32May 29, 21:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 28?$0.35May 29, 21:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 28?$0.65May 29, 21:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on May 28?$0.68May 29, 21:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 28?$0.92May 29, 21:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 28?$0.95May 29, 21:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 29?$2.64May 29, 15:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $1.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 28, 10:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 9, 23:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.