Popular-Willingness
0x281c065bf3f327fe52b15431c27b81f48157e66a
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$12.11
Total PnL
$-192.89
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?
105 shares @ 19.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.11
$-7.89
- NO
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?
6000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?
2050 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will Novocaine be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
454 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
286 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?
270 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
ICE shooter charged by March 31?
143 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m?
135 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-31.00
- YES
Maduro mugshot released by January 9?
111 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
79 shares @ 25.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYOdds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?$6.00Feb 18, 17:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?$30.00Feb 16, 12:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?$142.86Feb 16, 12:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Novocaine be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$9.00Jan 19, 13:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$3.43Jan 19, 13:14 UTC
- TRADESELLFact Check: Maduro capture staged?$5.74Jan 19, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?$6.00Jan 11, 10:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?$6.61Jan 11, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31?$3.00Jan 9, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$20.00Jan 9, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?$20.00Jan 9, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYICE shooter charged by March 31?$30.00Jan 9, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?$20.00Jan 9, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?$10.17Jan 7, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$4.00Jan 7, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?$10.00Jan 7, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GTA 6 cost $100+?$30.00Jan 6, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m?$31.00Jan 6, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYFact Check: Maduro capture staged?$10.00Jan 6, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYMaduro mugshot released by January 9?$10.00Jan 6, 20:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $13.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 6, 20:54 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 18, 17:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".