Poor-Casualty
0x283dc5e9fcd5a7e03e8198db0147de4e2dfd221a
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$108.80
Total PnL
$-5.51
Realised
$-0.81
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
52 shares @ 57.0¢·now 56.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$29.12
$-0.52
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
28 shares @ 75.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$22.68
$1.80
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
25 shares @ 79.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$20.25
$0.25
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
16 shares @ 81.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$14.91
$1.71
- NO
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?
19 shares @ 38.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$13.69
$6.31
- YES
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
83 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.37
$-0.63
- YES
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
14 shares @ 12.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.46
$-0.21
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
25 shares @ 13.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.38
$-1.88
- YES
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
25 shares @ 20.0¢·now 1.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.41
$-4.59
- YES
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
63 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.4¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.28
$-1.35
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?$11.07Jul 30, 00:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?$7.56Jul 29, 21:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?$7.56Jul 29, 21:53 UTC
- TRADESELLTodd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by August 30?$0.26Jul 29, 17:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 28, 2026?$0.00Jul 29, 17:30 UTC
- TRADESELLTodd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by August 30?$10.87Jul 27, 23:12 UTC
- TRADESELLTodd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by October 31?$20.50Jul 27, 23:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?$30.28Jul 27, 17:13 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$20.03Jul 27, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$12.00Jul 26, 13:39 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$21.54Jul 26, 04:12 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$7.20Jul 25, 23:13 UTC
- TRADESELLChina x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$0.01Jul 25, 19:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$0.01Jul 25, 19:03 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?$2.94Jul 25, 18:18 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?$2.60Jul 25, 18:18 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?$4.87Jul 25, 18:18 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?$4.27Jul 25, 18:18 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: K27 vs Infinite (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group A$0.00Jul 25, 17:16 UTC
- REDEEMChicago Air Quality Index below 100 by July 21, 2026?$8.09Jul 25, 16:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $9.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 13:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 00:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.