Outrageous-Cilantro
0x2853240a0f4e9e11a949a5cfa6e0fe953a293482
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
79
Open notional
$58.6K
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$129.40
Win rate
72%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 79- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
53900 shares @ 50.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$43.1K
$16.1K
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
53900 shares @ 50.0¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$10.8K
$-16.1K
- NO
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31?
1000 shares @ 99.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$1.0K
$9.00
- YES
Will Don’t Be Dumb by A$AP Rocky be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January 31?
796 shares @ 98.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$795.98
$9.44
- NO
Will Taylor Swift perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
695 shares @ 92.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$694.81
$51.92
- NO
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
370 shares @ 93.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$369.99
$23.91
- YES
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?
1300 shares @ 21.5¢·now 26.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$337.93
$58.52
- NO
Will Slime Cry by YoungBoy Never Broke Again be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January 31?
326 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$325.74
$2.22
- NO
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
300 shares @ 87.8¢·now 93.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$279.30
$15.91
- NO
Will Before I Forget by The Kid LAROI be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January 31?
212 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$211.79
$2.09
Recent activity
- YIELD$4.80Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$4.80Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$4.80Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$4.80Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$4.80Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$4.80Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$4.80Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$4.80Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$4.80Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$4.80Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$4.80Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$4.80Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$4.80Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$4.80Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$4.80Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$4.80Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$4.80Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$4.80Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$4.80Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$4.80Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
72% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.