This-Ability
0x28cacedaf90f13127ee353baf3051307f882a5d4
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
176
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.7K
Realised
$-338.74
Win rate
1%
168 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 176- PARIVISION
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 27?
2270 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?
667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- LYNN VISION
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1
577 shares @ 6.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-37.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?
390 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?
250 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?
238 shares @ 25.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-61.51
- YES
Netanyahu out by April 30?
208 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- THUNDERTALK GAMING
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana
200 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLPredict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?$8.45Aug 3, 00:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.03Jul 12, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$1.03Jul 12, 12:31 UTC
- REWARD$1.01Jul 2, 20:10 UTC
- REWARD$2.80Jul 2, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?$9.65Jun 27, 13:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?$9.13Jun 27, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?$5.00Jun 26, 17:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 28?$3.34Jun 26, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET$0.00Jun 25, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET$1.07Jun 25, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United States win on 2026-06-25?$5.07Jun 25, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?$30.66Jun 25, 11:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?$36.10Jun 25, 00:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$1.06Jun 24, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$1.07Jun 24, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$1.06Jun 24, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?$2.08Jun 24, 15:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 28?$2.08Jun 24, 15:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?$10.22Jun 24, 15:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
61/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 168 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
168 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $4.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 15, 00:20 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 3, 00:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 168 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.