Sugary-Dessert
0x294d6426745e9c48c978b91478b91365af32b362
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$12.4K
Total PnL
$-9.8K
Realised
$722.76
Win rate
100%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
28152 shares @ 69.4¢·now 34.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.6K
$-10.0K
- NO
Will Diego Lopes become UFC champion in 2026?
1187 shares @ 85.7¢·now 93.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$89.34
- NO
Will Arman Tsarukyan become UFC champion in 2026?
1271 shares @ 74.5¢·now 64.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$813.13
$-132.77
- NO
Will Umar Nurmagomedov become UFC champion in 2026?
492 shares @ 70.9¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$425.33
$76.58
- NO
Will Manel Kape become UFC champion in 2026?
277 shares @ 49.9¢·now 83.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$229.54
$91.55
- YES
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
372 shares @ 49.5¢·now 59.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$222.62
$38.73
- NO
Will Aljamain Sterling become UFC champion in 2026?
28 shares @ 54.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.34
$-0.99
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
10 shares @ 75.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.95
$-0.55
- YES
Will Dricus Du Plessis be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
39 shares @ 2.0¢·now 7.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.76
$1.98
- NO
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
1 shares @ 87.7¢·now 17.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.20
$-0.80
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Umar Nurmagomedov become UFC champion in 2026?$7.57Jun 10, 05:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Umar Nurmagomedov become UFC champion in 2026?$1.69Jun 10, 03:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May?$1.4KMay 30, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?$40.64May 29, 15:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Islam Makhachev be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?$38.36May 29, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?$406.40May 29, 15:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$56.70May 29, 15:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2026?$323.84May 29, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?$711.20May 29, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?$609.60May 29, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?$670.56May 29, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?$1.6KMay 29, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?$1.0KMay 29, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?$17.70May 29, 11:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?$8.07May 29, 02:54 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.80May 29, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?$0.12May 28, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?$60.00May 28, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?$60.00May 28, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?$61.00May 28, 18:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $187.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 14, 20:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 10, 05:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.