US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Probability
37¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$1.8K
Liquidity
$65.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dTimeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5943.0h
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 37¢.
Biggest hourly move: +5.5pp at 14:00 (to 37¢).
Show top 8 of 14 hourly moves
- 08:00 · +4.5pp → 37¢
- 21:00 · +4.5pp → 37¢
- 20:00 · +4.5pp → 37¢
- 18:00 · +5.0pp → 38¢
- 17:00 · +4.5pp → 37¢
- 16:00 · +4.5pp → 37¢
- 14:00 · +5.5pp → 37¢
- 13:00 · +5.0pp → 37¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
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