UnclassifiedExpires Dec 31, 2026

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Probability

37¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$1.8K

Liquidity

$65.7K

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.5pp 7d
Apr 20, 2026, 13:00Apr 27, 2026, 08:57
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5943.0h

    LOW

Price movement

-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 37¢.

Biggest hourly move: +5.5pp at 14:00 (to 37¢).

Show top 8 of 14 hourly moves
  • 08:00 · +4.5pp → 37¢
  • 21:00 · +4.5pp → 37¢
  • 20:00 · +4.5pp → 37¢
  • 18:00 · +5.0pp → 38¢
  • 17:00 · +4.5pp → 37¢
  • 16:00 · +4.5pp → 37¢
  • 14:00 · +5.5pp → 37¢
  • 13:00 · +5.0pp → 37¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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