Better-Probability
0x2952b5dac6933f91f59b532a82720a3d11ee4ead
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
68
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-373.16
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 68- YES
Will Trump say "Title IX" or "Title 9" during Women's History Month event?
1546 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
358 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 19, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 6?
238 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
192 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET
178 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-11.10
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?
158 shares @ 9.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
150 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-4.50
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?
146 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
120 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
114 shares @ 17.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?$5.00Apr 26, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$10.00Apr 7, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$10.00Apr 7, 01:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?$5.00Apr 7, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$10.00Apr 5, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?$10.00Apr 4, 21:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$19.81Apr 4, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$10.00Mar 16, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$10.00Mar 15, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Frankenstein" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?$6.00Mar 15, 23:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?$5.00Mar 14, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?$10.00Mar 13, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by March 31?$10.00Mar 13, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$10.00Mar 13, 22:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$18.07Mar 13, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?$5.00Mar 12, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Title IX" or "Title 9" during Women's History Month event?$5.00Mar 12, 21:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYQatarEnergy resumes LNG production by March 14?$5.00Mar 9, 00:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 15?$5.00Mar 9, 00:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?$5.00Mar 9, 00:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $6.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 24, 01:29 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 26, 01:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.