Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?

1. 1

   Up 3pp over 24h

   Now 31¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $5.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

4. 4

   Past expiry — awaiting resolution

   Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

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Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in the White House Correspondents' Association Dinner events on April 25, 2026. (see: https://whca.press/news/annual-dinner/) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances during White House Correspondents' Association Dinner events on April 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. This market will resolve according to footage of the event.