Frightened-Font
0x29bfaa04d8c268b23e2158d169baa4e7b7c4f7dd
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
32
Open notional
$84.80
Total PnL
$-114.95
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
11 shares @ 89.8¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.47
$0.63
- NO
Will the Democrats win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?
10 shares @ 98.8¢·now 97.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$9.56
$-0.18
- NO
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
10 shares @ 93.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.88
$-0.45
- YES
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
10 shares @ 52.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$7.95
$2.94
- NO
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
15 shares @ 37.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$6.98
$1.54
- NO
Will there be four or more UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
7 shares @ 84.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$6.58
$0.91
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
8 shares @ 70.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.00
$0.65
- YES
Will Mai Vang win the CA-07 House seat?
10 shares @ 57.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.79
$0.15
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
6 shares @ 81.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.37
$0.37
- NO
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?
7 shares @ 78.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.04
$-0.03
Recent activity
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$15.02Jul 8, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $4M committed to the Credible public sale?$3.25Jul 8, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$4.84Jul 7, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?$6.94Jul 7, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?$5.11Jul 7, 08:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mai Vang win the CA-07 House seat?$5.74Jul 7, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$4.98Jul 7, 01:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be four or more UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?$5.71Jul 7, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?$5.43Jul 7, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$9.94Jul 7, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?$9.74Jul 7, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$5.00Jul 6, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?$5.07Jul 5, 21:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Charles Schwab (SCHW) Q2 core net new assets be above $140B?$3.02Jul 5, 12:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Charles Schwab (SCHW) Q2 core net new assets be above $140B?$5.27Jul 5, 09:56 UTC
- TRADESELLIran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?$4.93Jul 5, 01:35 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?$10.08Jul 5, 01:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?$9.80Jul 5, 01:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?$37.69Jul 5, 01:28 UTC
- TRADESELLIran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?$9.93Jul 5, 01:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $7.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 23:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 8, 22:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.