Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?
Probability
15¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$4.89
Liquidity
$51.83
Probability (last 7 days)
+9.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 4544h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 29.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 4543.9h
- 16:04SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 4544h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 15¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.6pp
to 15¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.8pp
to 15¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.3pp
to 15¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.4pp
to 15¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.1pp
to 15¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.0pp
to 15¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.0pp
to 15¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.0pp
to 15¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.0pp
to 15¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.1pp
to 15¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 16¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.7pp
to 17¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.9pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.3pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.3pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.3pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.2pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.1pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.6pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.7pp
to 32¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.4pp
to 15¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.8pp
to 15¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.4pp
to 15¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the next team LeBron James officially joins by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If LeBron James does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Los Angeles Lakers”. If LeBron James joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”. If LeBron James retires or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. An official acquisition announcement prior to the market’s close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the Los Angeles Lakers and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Nov 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (29.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).