0x29efb149c85a53729c266b7918bfa921a70dddda
0x29efb149c85a53729c266b7918bfa921a70dddda
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
116
Open notional
$2.1K
Total PnL
$-3.19
Realised
$167.76
Win rate
50%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 116- YES
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
1606 shares @ 23.7¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$264.99
$-115.42
- NO
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
209 shares @ 73.1¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$174.88
$21.78
- YES
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
230 shares @ 69.3¢·now 62.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$142.51
$-16.86
- YES
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026?
168 shares @ 76.8¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$130.39
$1.11
- YES
Will Waymo launch in Denver, CO by December 31 2026?
123 shares @ 82.7¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$102.97
$1.04
- YES
Will Waymo launch in San Diego, CA by December 31 2026?
108 shares @ 79.6¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$85.46
$-0.15
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 59.4¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$72.39
$13.08
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
77 shares @ 78.1¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$64.99
$4.92
- YES
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
90 shares @ 18.1¢·now 66.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$59.71
$43.35
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?
80 shares @ 63.5¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$56.39
$5.59
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 29?$1.09Jul 28, 22:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 29?$1.15Jul 28, 22:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on July 29?$8.40Jul 28, 22:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?$6.05Jul 28, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?$6.26Jul 28, 21:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on July 29?$11.36Jul 28, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?$9.74Jul 28, 21:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 29?$9.15Jul 28, 20:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 29?$13.99Jul 28, 20:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 30?$5.48Jul 28, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 30?$3.69Jul 28, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 30?$2.10Jul 28, 20:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?$1.93Jul 28, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?$2.20Jul 28, 19:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 30?$8.75Jul 28, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 30?$9.20Jul 28, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 29?$11.60Jul 28, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 29?$10.00Jul 28, 17:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Coal" during cabinet meeting?$2.92Jul 28, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Coal" during cabinet meeting?$3.07Jul 28, 17:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 30 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
30 closed markets, 50% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $9.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 14:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 22:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.