Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Probability
24¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+7.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+7.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 7pp over 24h
Now 24¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 10.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5986.1h
- 13:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:54PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 24¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 24¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 24¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 24¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 24¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 23¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 22¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).