Mealy-Elbow
0x2a20cfc5814b416b28f4d729d2adceabf8a689d2
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
50
Open notional
$343.99
Total PnL
$-44.68
Realised
$251.79
Win rate
20%
41 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 50- NO
Will Sandra Hüller win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
200 shares @ 89.7¢·now 74.4¢·exp Mar 14, 2027$148.70
$-30.70
- YES
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 2026?
57 shares @ 88.7¢·now 84.5¢·exp Aug 29, 2026$47.88
$-2.38
- NO
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
55 shares @ 90.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$46.75
$-2.75
- NO
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 28, 2026?
40 shares @ 87.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Aug 28, 2026$33.60
$-1.20
- YES
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 27, 2026?
40 shares @ 89.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Aug 27, 2026$28.80
$-6.80
- NO
Will Jacky Rosen vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
40 shares @ 90.0¢·now 51.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$20.40
$-15.60
- YES
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + UDMR?
50 shares @ 30.6¢·now 6.2¢·exp May 31, 2026$3.08
$-12.22
- YES
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?
40 shares @ 9.9¢·now 6.6¢·exp Sep 29, 2026$2.62
$-1.34
- YES
Will Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?
80 shares @ 7.2¢·now 3.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.56
$-3.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 18?
59 shares @ 7.0¢·now 4.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$2.38
$-1.78
Recent activity
- REWARD$0.66Aug 17, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Jersey Senate election by 12%-15%?$0.24Aug 17, 00:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?$1.19Aug 17, 00:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?$0.08Aug 17, 00:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election by 15%-18%?$0.72Aug 17, 00:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the MI-11 House seat?$1.35Aug 17, 00:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the GA-13 House seat?$1.35Aug 17, 00:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the MS-04 House seat?$1.54Aug 17, 00:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?$1.54Aug 17, 00:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the AZ-09 House seat?$1.35Aug 17, 00:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the AZ-09 House seat?$2.28Aug 17, 00:06 UTC
- REWARD$181.57Aug 17, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLIran successfully targets shipping on August 29, 2026?$30.80Aug 16, 23:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 25, 2026?$33.80Aug 16, 23:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?$35.51Aug 16, 23:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vancouver Canucks be the 2027 NHL Western Conference Champion?$4.32Aug 16, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vancouver Canucks be the 2027 NHL Western Conference Champion?$5.36Aug 16, 23:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 2026?$14.66Aug 16, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 2026?$35.60Aug 16, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 27, 2026?$35.60Aug 16, 23:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 41 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
41 closed markets, 20% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $23.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 16, 18:58 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 41 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.