Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
Probability
60¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+5.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$352.41
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 6pp over 24h
Now 60¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3775h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 12.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3775.2h
- 16:45SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 3775h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:45PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 60¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 60¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 57¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 54¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 54¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 56¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 58¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 58¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 59¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 57¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 56¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 56¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 56¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 59¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 57¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 56¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 55¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 71¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 69¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 70¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 69¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 69¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 70¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 68¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 68¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 68¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 68¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 68¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the first check after it becomes availableAmbiguous wordingextracted · lowlmarena.ai
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.