Loathsome-Lava
0x2a32bc74120713d7e4a29c65d53cc9b327810188
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$7.4K
Total PnL
$-9.6K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
3270 shares @ 68.3¢·now 86.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.8K
$578.60
- NO
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
2468 shares @ 80.8¢·now 72.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.8K
$-204.45
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
2006 shares @ 74.3¢·now 77.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$58.27
- NO
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
1079 shares @ 86.6¢·now 72.8¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$784.97
$-149.35
- YES
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
579 shares @ 55.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$269.33
$-49.23
- YES
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
1000 shares @ 30.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$185.00
$-115.00
- YES
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
7091 shares @ 95.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.8K
- YES
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
2825 shares @ 68.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.9K
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
1935 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-126.41
- YES
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
1000 shares @ 72.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-720.99
Recent activity
- REWARD$1.81Aug 7, 20:24 UTC
- REWARD$3.94Aug 1, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$779.99Jul 31, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$144.50Jul 31, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$619.11Jul 31, 17:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$35.44Jul 30, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$516.85Jul 30, 23:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$43.27Jul 30, 23:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$33.24Jul 30, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$40.73Jul 30, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$25.71Jul 30, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$25.75Jul 30, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$345.00Jul 30, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$345.00Jul 30, 17:01 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$6.14Jul 30, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$1.18Jul 30, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2.9KJul 29, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$225.54Jul 29, 10:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$201.59Jul 29, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.8KJul 29, 02:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $308.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 08:38 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 20:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.