Trustworthy-Urgency
0x2a7e322b4cc4f3c7fe81e367497bcafb89889dc6
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
57
Open notional
$5.3K
Total PnL
$-80.57
Realised
$-67.53
Win rate
40%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 57- NO
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?
1036 shares @ 94.4¢·now 94.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$974.36
$-3.63
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
546 shares @ 83.2¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$428.61
$-25.67
- NO
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?
489 shares @ 82.9¢·now 83.7¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$409.04
$3.75
- MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
331 shares @ 65.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$330.83
$113.42
- NO
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?
394 shares @ 84.6¢·now 83.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$328.39
$-4.61
- NO
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?
352 shares @ 95.2¢·now 87.7¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$308.82
$-26.39
- NO
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
300 shares @ 98.1¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$294.15
$-0.15
- NO
Fed rate hike in 2026?
423 shares @ 52.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$213.68
$-6.35
- FLAVIO COBOLLI
Wimbledon ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Fery
200 shares @ 71.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$143.00
$1.00
- YES
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?
269 shares @ 54.7¢·now 48.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$129.61
$-17.54
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYGRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?$13.90Jul 8, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner$10.44Jul 8, 04:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$5.58Jul 8, 03:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYPuffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?$0.89Jul 8, 03:42 UTC
- REDEEMLos Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers$0.00Jul 8, 03:25 UTC
- REDEEMDota 2: Team Yandex vs OG (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D$75.96Jul 8, 03:09 UTC
- REDEEMLos Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers$100.00Jul 8, 03:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$19.73Jul 8, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?$5.33Jul 8, 02:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?$95.80Jul 8, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYDatabricks IPO before 2027?$1.78Jul 8, 02:43 UTC
- REDEEMPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds$53.27Jul 8, 02:40 UTC
- REDEEMChicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles$42.15Jul 8, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?$0.67Jul 8, 02:28 UTC
- REDEEMSeattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins$96.00Jul 8, 02:26 UTC
- REDEEMHouston Astros vs. Washington Nationals$21.00Jul 8, 02:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?$981.82Jul 8, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYColorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers$7.14Jul 8, 02:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?$169.00Jul 8, 02:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$4.25Jul 8, 01:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $45.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 22:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 8, 04:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.