0x2a86a3e2ba6c1bc8529e81a3f4e8b1a87244c16c
0x2a86a3e2ba6c1bc8529e81a3f4e8b1a87244c16c
Wallet digest
Activity score
35/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.70
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the United States report a record high 7-day COVID-19 case average before January 1, 2022?
282 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2022$0.00
$-0.50
- NO
Will the USA report a 7-day COVID-19 case average of 350k or more by January 8?
24 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2022$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the FIDE Top 3 chess players be Carlsen, Firouzja, Ding in that order on January 8, 2022?
20 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2022$0.00
$-0.60
- YES
Chess: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2021 FIDE World Blitz Championship?
7 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2021$0.00
$-0.10
- NO
Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan before September 2022?
2 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2022$0.00
$-0.10
- ETHEREUM
Which cryptocurrency will perform better in December 2021: Bitcoin or Ethereum?
2 shares @ 12.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2022$0.00
$-0.20
- YES
Will Rishi Sunak be the next UK Conservative Party Leader?
1 shares @ 15.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2022$0.00
$-0.20
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.