Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan before September 2022?

• 01
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• 02
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 100.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

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Nancy Pelosi, Member of the US House of Representatives from California and present Speaker of the House, announced her intentions in April 2022 to visit Taiwan (Republic of China). Before she could initiate her trip, she tested positive for asymptomatic COVID-19, and her trip was postponed. She has since announced an intention to visit Taiwan in August. Learning of this intended trip, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was quoted in response: “If Pelosi, a political leader of the United States, knowingly visits Taiwan, it would be a malicious provocation against China’s sovereignty and gross interference in China’s internal affairs, and would send an extremely dangerous political signal to the outside world... If the United States insists on going its own way, China will surely make a firm response and the US side will bear all the consequences.” This market asks whether Nancy Pelosi will visit Taiwan between July 25, 2022, and August 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. If Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan between July 25, 2022, and August 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Nancy Pelosi physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Taiwan. Whether or not Nancy Pelosi enters Taiwanese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Nancy Pelosi or released by her verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/SpeakerPelosi), and official information from Taiwan (e.g. https://www.taiwan.gov.tw/news.php); however, other credible reporting may be considered.

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